René Núñez
Data Analyst. I build probabilistic forecasting models for sports and benchmark them against the market in public.
Models
Hierarchical Bayesian model simulating every game one plate appearance at a time.
ROI
-0.8%
Record
596–618
Net units
-0.5u
Updated nightly
Power ratings for every Division 1 program, with weekly spread and total projections priced against the market.
No. 1
Ohio State
Teams rated
266
Week 1 games
172
2026 week 1
Bayesian power ratings for all 32 teams from drive-level EPA, with weekly spread and total projections priced against the market.
No. 1
Seattle Seahawks
Teams rated
32
Week 1 games
16
2026 season
Hockey
Latest writing
All posts →2026-05-27
The Totals Problem
v2 beat v1 on moneyline and run line, but totals kept bleeding. Three fixes from inside the same modeling frame, none of them moved the number, and the question I probably should have been asking earlier.
2026-05-03
V2 Is Coming and It's Bringing Bayes with It. Our Findings on XGBoost.
One month of live predictions with a 14-feature XGBoost regressor. What held up, what didn't, and why I'm going hierarchical Bayesian for v2.